Our baseline outlook is for a moderately expansionary fiscal policy (media reports are that the fiscal deficit target is likely to be CNY1.2trn, or 2.2 percent GDP in 2013, up from CNY800bn and 1.5 percent GDP in 2012), a neutral monetary stance (media reported 13.5 percent M2 growth target for 2013, compared with 14 percent in 2012) and gradualreforms.