The government insists it has no plans to end the system, only to introduce gradual reforms.

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Gradual reforms are more likely.

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Our baseline outlook is for a moderately expansionary fiscal policy (media reports are that the fiscal deficit target is likely to be CNY1.2trn, or 2.2 percent GDP in 2013, up from CNY800bn and 1.5 percent GDP in 2012), a neutral monetary stance (media reported 13.5 percent M2 growth target for 2013, compared with 14 percent in 2012) and gradual reforms.

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Its leaders are talking of a gradual process of internal reforms in Malaysia and more openness in their grassroot meetings to win back supporters.

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Mr Koizumi's government may deserve some credit, they argue, but most of his reforms have been gradual and do not yet add up to much.

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In general, the measures suggest, bold reforms work better than gradual ones.

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However, the government's efforts to advance reforms since September has helped improve prospects for a gradual recovery.

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