To assess the absolute risk of a crisis you need to estimate external-financing needs (defined as the sum of the current-account balance and the stock of short-term debt) over the next 12 months.

为评定危机的绝对风险需要估计外部筹资需求（定义为经常账户余额和股票短期借款的总和）在接下来的12个月中。

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As lawmakers wrangled over budget cuts, tax increases and fiscal ideology in the third quarter of last year, businesses pulled back from merger activity and the financing of risk taking through stock and bond issuance.

FORBES: Goldman Sachs Can Fall Off the Fiscal Cliff