Toassess the absoluteriskof a crisisyou need toestimateexternal-financingneeds (definedas the sumof the current-accountbalanceand the stockofshort-termdebt) overthe next12months.
As lawmakers wrangled over budget cuts, tax increases and fiscal ideology in the third quarter of last year, businesses pulled back from merger activity and the financingofrisk taking through stock and bond issuance.