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The reason I chose Alpha, regardless of what my partner chose, I think there would be better outcomes than choosing Beta.
我选α是因为不管我对手选什么,我选α得到的成绩总会比选β的要好
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And again, we're not saying choosing 2 beats choosing 1, 2 wins against 1 or 9 wins against 10.
我们不是说选立场2会击败选立场1的,选立场2能赢立场1的,或者选立场9能赢选立场10的
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I have mine selected not to that sound but to Mozart, so I hear this sound on my telephone.
我没选乱七八糟的那些,而是选了莫扎特的,我听到了我手机的铃声
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And the claim is that when you choose this, in order to justify your decision, you denigrate the one you didn't choose.
对这个行为的解释是，当你选这一粒时，为了表明你的选择是正确的，你会贬低第一次没选上的那粒。
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So it has two books that we don't include and excludes one that we do include.
所以有两本书没有被选上,并排除了选上的一部。
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The payoff of 2 against 3 is all the people at 1, all the people at 2, so it's 20%.
如果对手选3而我选2我会得到,立场1和2的全部选票,一共20%
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Please choose a rhythm for excerpt one you can choose rhythm A which is or you could choose rhythm B So I'm about to play a piece. It's by Chopin.
请选一个和你听到的相符的节奏,你可以选节奏甲,也可以选节奏乙,我现在要弹一段,肖邦的曲子
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If I choose Alpha and she chooses Alpha to get 0; Beta she gets -1. Alpha is better.
如果我选α,她选α她得0,选β她得-1,选α更好
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And they said, suppose we know we're going to be paired together, I'll choose Beta if you choose Beta. Would that work?
他俩这么商量的,咱俩会被分到一组,你要是选β我也选β,这会成功吗
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it's going to be: 1 minus the probability they'll choose Right times 1, plus the probability that they choose Right times 4.
方程是,1减对手选右的概率再乘以1,加上对手选右的概率乘以4
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So not only was he choosing a position close to the Conservatives: he was choosing exactly their position.
他不只是选了一个临近保守派的立场,他选的就是一个保守派的立场
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What probabilities are associated with thinking it's twice as likely they're going to choose Left than Right?
那么在选左是选右的可能性的二倍时,选择每个策略的概率是多少呢
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It's still I'm choosing Alpha and Beta, my pair is choosing Alpha and Beta, and the grades are the same as they were before.
还是我选α和β,我对手选α和β,成绩的评判和之前是一模一样的
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Why did they allow some books in and other books not in?
为什么有些书被选上而有些没被选上？
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0%: the person at 2 is going to get all the ones at 1, and all the ones at 2; and 3 will get everything else.
0%的选票,选立场2的人会得到,立场1和2的全部选票,选立场3的候选人会得到剩下的选票
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If I choose 1 against 3, what share of the vote do I get?
如果我选立场1,对手选立场3,我能获得多少选票
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If I choose Beta, if she chooses Alpha she gets 3; Beta 1.
如果我选β,她选α得3,选β得1
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If the pair chooses Alpha and she chooses Alpha, then she gets 0.
如果对手选α她也选α,她得到0
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We say that my strategy Alpha strictly dominates my strategy Beta, if my payoff from Alpha is strictly greater than that from beta, regardless of what others do."
无论别人怎么选,如果选α得到的结果严格优于β,那么α相对于β是个严格优势策略"
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Okay, so you chose Alpha right? So why did you choose Alpha?
你选了α对吧,你为什么要选α呢
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If the pair chooses Alpha and she chose Beta, she gets -1.
对手选α她选β,她得到-1
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Beta is better against Beta. There's no dominance going on here.
她选β我也应该选β,这次没有优势策略
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So let's have the Beta's up again. Let's see the Beta's.
请选β的再举下手,看看有谁选了β
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So if the other person's choosing Right with probability 0, that's the same as saying they're going to choose Left, and if I chose Middle against Left, I get what?
如果对手选右的概率是0,也就是说对手选左,此时我选中的收益是什么
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So the payoff from choosing 1, let's start against 2.
我们先看看我选立场1,我们先从选立场2开始吧
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And once I know that she's going to choose Alpha, it's clear that I should choose Alpha and get 0 rather than Beta and get -3. So I should choose Alpha also.
一旦我意识到她会选α的时候,很显然我应该也选α来得到0单位效用,而不是选β只得到-3,所以我也选α
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It's the safer answer if you can't decide whether or not your opponent's going to choose Left or Right, so you don't have to worry about having a payoff of 0.
当你无法判断你的对手会选左还是右时,选下是较安全的答案,因此你不必担心收益变成0
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As we saw before, Alpha is better against Alpha.
就像我们看到的,她选α我最好选α
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Similarly, we can see that Right is not dominated, because it does better against Up, than does Left.
类似的,我们也得出右也不是劣势策略,因为参与人I选上时,选右比选左好
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