I wrote this book in 2000 right at the peak of-- fortunately right at the peak of the stock market.

我2000年写这本书的时候,当时希勒教授在书中提醒投资者注意泡沫风险 股市正处于最高点 2个月后此预言果然应验

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Bob Shiller's friend, Jeremy Siegel, wrote a book that has the very simple title, Stocks For The Long Run.

鲍勃·希勒的朋友,杰瑞米·西格尔有一本著作,标题很简单,《股市长线法宝》

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So right now, it's something like 2% or it's a little bit higher last year, but maybe it'll be 2% going forward.

希勒有可能记错了08年2月份的美国通胀率为4%,略高于去年的水平,但未来应该会维持在2%左右

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

In another year, however, the stock market lost 5% and Shiller, Inc. Lost 7%.

另一年,股票市场下跌了5%,希勒公司.下跌了7%

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Probably when the overall stock market does well so does Shiller, Inc.

很有可能当股票市场的总体表现好,希勒公司.的表现也一样好

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

I think that,generally speaking -and Bob Shiller can speak to this with a lot more authority than I can this bubble was not something that should have surprised people.

我想,总的来说,希勒来讲这个话题,比我有权威的多,次贷泡沫,不是突然的

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

This is Economics 252, Financial Markets, and I'm Robert Shiller.

这是经济类252号课程,金融市场,我是罗伯特·希勒

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Roger Ibbotson, who is a colleague of Bob Shiller's and mine at the School of Management, has done a fair amount of work, studying the relative importance of these sources of returns.

罗格·伊博森是,我和希勒在管理学院的同事,他在对回报率来源的研究上,做了大量的工作

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Let's not say Microsoft, let's say Shiller, Inc.

不用微软了,就用希勒公司.吧

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

A funny coincidence is that since our names are close in the alphabet-- you often find our books right together in bookstores because Shiller and Siegel-- if they're shelving alphabetically-- would end up together.

巧合的是,因为我们的姓氏在字母表中排在一起,所以书店里常见到我们的书也摆放在一起,因为希勒和西格尔,如果书店按字母顺序摆放书籍的话,我们的书就会放在一起

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Suppose that in a given year--and say this is minus five and this is plus five, this is minus five and this is plus five-- suppose that in the first year in our sample, the company Shiller, Inc. and the market both did 5%.

假设某一年...这里设为-5,这里+5,这是-5,这是+5,我们假设第一年中,希勒公司.和市场都获利5%

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

In that case, alpha is a measure of how much Shiller,Inc. outperforms.

这样的话,alpha就用以衡量,希勒公司.表现超过市场平均水平多少

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The way I've written it, the beta of Shiller, Inc.

希勒公司.的beta值

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Shiller and Siegel are next to each other in the alphabet, so I was standing in line with him for an x-ray and I got to talking with him and I've known him ever since.

希勒和西格尔按字母顺序是相邻的,所以我和他站在一起排队照X光,我们开始聊天,从此我就认识他了

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选