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Right, if nobody stands, each and every possible candidate would do better individually, so any particular voter would do better standing.
没错,如果没人参选,每个可能的候选人单独都能做得更好,任一个特定选民都能通过参选而做得更好
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He took the In England you have to publish your economic and financial plans of the Government five years in ahead.
他采用的是,在英国参选人必须提前公布,自己的内阁政府在未来,五年的财政计划
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And I think you could win, if you're going on the Hustings, let me add one element to the argument you might make.
我认为，如果你参选，应该可以赢，我给你补充一点，你也许能用上。
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So suppose that we consider a deviation in which, and again I've forgotten your name in which Stacy stands as well.
假设我们考虑一种偏差的情况下,我又忘了你的名字了,斯泰西也参选了
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You guys have to decide whether you, okay. So if you're going to, if you're running you stand up.
你们需要考虑是否你们,这么说吧,如果你们要,如果你要参选,你就站起来
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So Claire Elise enters and I'm sorry I don't know your name, Jean enters so let's have a look at this array.
克莱尔·伊莉斯参选,对不起我不知道你的名字,吉恩参选,我们来看一下这一行
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Stand up my very left-wing guy, Sudipta, way at the end, and stand up my very right-wing guy.
一个绝对左派的人参选,苏迪普塔,在最边上,以及一个绝对右派的人参选
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The person in the middle if they enter here loses, so they're not going to want to enter.
中间的那个人,如果他们参选将会失败,所以他们不会想去参选
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Because if someone on either side of them were to stand up that person on the side would win.
因为如果他们任何一边有人,参选,那个人将会获胜
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So the only really relevant strategy is to run or not to run, to stand or not to stand.
所以唯一相关的策略是要不要参选,要不要站出来
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This is our row and at the count of three we're going to see who's going to run.
我们用这排,数到三的时候,我们来看一下谁会参选
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So I think it's probably obvious why it's not a good strategy for Beatrice to enter here.
参选对比阿特丽斯来说不是个好策略,的原因非常明显
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But in the real world that's a sequential game, people decide to run in some order, we're going to assume this is all simultaneous.
但在现实生活中这是个有顺序的博弈,人们依照某种顺序决定是否参选,我们将假设这全是同时发生的
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This game that's going on more or less right now in the primaries, well I guess the entry stage of it is gone now.
这个博弈在一定程度上,正在现在的总统初选中进行着,我猜是否要参选的阶段已经结束了
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Suppose Beatrice stands again, sorry Beatrice, and the gentleman in front of her whose name is?
假设比阿特丽斯再次参选,不好意思比阿特丽斯,在她前面的那位先生,名字是
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So on the count of three, anybody who's entering this election is going to stand up.
那么在我数到三的时候,谁想要参选就站起来
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regardless of whether I run or not, if some other candidate is elected other than me, then they're not going to have my ideal policies.
不论我是否参选,如果除了我以外的其他候选人获胜,那么他们将不会采用我的政治理念
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We're going to ask everybody in this row whether they want to enter or not.
我们要问这排里的每一个人,是否要参选
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Because Claire Elise would rather not have run, Let's try once more, Close your eyes again, just to keep life interesting, let's switch to this row.
因为克莱尔·伊莉斯还不如不参选,我们再试一次,把眼睛闭上,让游戏更有趣一点,我们换成这排吧
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In terms of the benefits of the spoils of government versus the cost of running, it's a wash for Claire Elise, whether she enters or not.
从利益角度来看,政府的奖励对参选的成本,对克莱尔·伊莉斯来说它是零,无论她参不参选
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So if anybody on either side of them runs, that person would simply lose.
任意一个在两边的人要参选,都会以失败告终
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One is that she loses, she's not going to win this election by standing.
其一是她会失败,她不会由于参选而获胜
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Now here we ended up with two centrist candidates, which is a result pretty close to what we saw in the Hoteling model, Is this an equilibrium?
现在我们最终有2个中间派候选人参选,这与我们,在霍特林模型中看到的非常相似,这是一个均衡吗
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Let's think it through a second, If she stays in what's her payoff?
我们来思考一下,如果她参选,她的收益是什么
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Is there a Nash Equilibrium In which one and only one candidate stands?
有且只有一个,候选人参选是纳什均衡吗
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If anybody on either side of them chose to run, they would lose.
任意一个在两边的人要参选,都会失败
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If a person on the right stood, so let's just try it again.
如果右边有人参选,我们来试一下
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If Sarah stands, it doesn't help Sarah at all, she just loses.
如果莎拉参选,也不会对莎拉有任何帮助,她只会失败
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So if Stacy stands, it doesn't make any difference she just loses.
那么如果斯泰西参选,不会有什么不同,她会输
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But by entering she has a half chance of winning the election.
但是通过参选她赢得了一半获胜的机会
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