Or are you going to manage each individual asset class actively, trying to beat the market and generate risk-adjusted excess returns?

还是积极管理每项资产,力求获得市场水平以上的回报率,以及风险调整后的超额收益

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So there's not a lot of room in the government bond market or other high-quality bond markets to generate excess returns.

所以对于政府债券或者优质债券,超额收益的空间不大

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Well, it can only be true if security selection and market timing detract from institutional returns or individual returns in the aggregate.

唯一的可能性就是证券选择,和市场时机选择,给机构和个人带来的是负的回报

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The returns would be attributable solely to my ability to market time the bond futures market.

回报率仅仅取决于,我选择买卖期货的市场时机的能力

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

He's a PhD candidate now in Economics and he's doing his doctoral dissertation on stock analysts' recommendations and the relation to returns in the stock market.

他正在攻读经济学博士学位,他的博士论文方向是,股票分析师的建议,和其与股票市场回报的关系

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.

因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资者回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

But, when you move from lending money to the government -either short-term with bills or longer term with bonds -to investing in the equity market, there's a stunning difference in terms of the returns.

当你转变投资方式,从借钱给政府,即通过短期债券或长期债券的形式,变成投资于股票市场,回报率的差别会大到让你吃惊

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.

因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

As a matter of fact,if things were perfectly efficiently priced, there wouldn't be any opportunity to generate excess returns and if you make active bets--if you make bets against the market -then whether you win or lose has to do with luck.

事实上,如果资产都是有效定价的,那么根本不可能获得任何超额收益,如果你主动一搏,要从市场中获利,那么无论得失都只能靠运气了

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Just as I foreshadowed, if you look at the difference between the first and third quartile in the bond market -these are active returns over a ten-year period again ending June 30,2005 -and the fixed income market, the difference between first and third quartile is a half a percent per annum.

如我之前所示,如果观察,债券市场中的第一和第三个四分位数,四分位数即统计学中,把所有数值由小到大排列并分成四等份三个分割点位置分别就是三个四分位数 考虑十年期的主动型的收益,截止于2005年6月30日,在债券这个固定收益市场,第一和第三个四分位数,每年只差0.5%

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选