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If you accept my estimates and you accept the capital asset pricing model, that would have to be true.
如果你同意我的估算,而且认同资本资本资产定价模型，那这种投资组合就会带来最大收益。
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and we're not going to see the same sort of pricing model, the same sort of...
我们的定价模式就不一样了，同样的……
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Okay, so now more interestingly, we leave a little gap here, what if the other guy is pricing above costs?
现在更有趣的来了,我们这边留一点空白,如果对手的定价比成本高呢
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The other end of the spectrum is a market that is very hard to define.
这里的其他市场,是指很难有效定价的那些市场
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I think in the past, the pricing model for songs and selling music was,
我觉得在过去，歌曲定价和销售唱片的模式是，
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Why? Because no matter how the other firm, your competitor, prices you might have an incentive to undercut them.
为什么,因为不管你对手怎么定价,你总有想削弱他们的动机
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If the other guy is pricing below costs, you don't want to sell anything, that's the right intuition.
如果另一家公司定价低于成本,你不想卖任何产品,这是正确的经济学直觉
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Then as you move out to the equity markets where it's harder to price things as efficiently--large-cap stocks -there are two-fold percentage points,first to third quartile.
如果你转而观察,难以有效定价的市场,比如大盘股,第一和第三个四分位数相差2个百分点
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Let's just make sure we understand this, if the other guy is selling below cost, the only way I can make any sales is to price below his price.
来确认下大家都明白这点,如果另外一家公司定价低于成本,我想卖出产品的唯一方法就是定价比它低
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Jeremy Siegel, in his book, which is assigned for this course, is really emphasizing this capital asset pricing model, emphasizing the kind of efficient portfolio frontier calculations that I've done.
杰里米·西格尔的著作，是本课的指定书目，书中着重讲述了资本资产定价模型，以及有效边界等的计算方法,这部分我已经讲完了。
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So we'd like an outcome that looks a little bit like Cournot, but we'd like the strategy set to be prices, and this is going to do the trick.
我们想要一个跟古诺有点像的结果,但我们希望通过策略来定价,这就需要一些技巧了
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So the strategy sets this time are prices.
所以这次的策略是定价
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Pepsi's pricing below cost, what's your best response?
百事可乐定价低于成本,你的最佳对策是什么
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What market might be efficiently priced?
哪个市场是有效定价的
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All right, so if the other guy is pricing above costs, I want to set prices below his so that I steal the whole of the market and make profits on those sales.
正确,如果对手定价比成本高,我就想定价比他的价格低,这样我就可以占领整个市场,并获得销售利润
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You want to spend your time and energy pursuing the most inefficiently priced asset classes because there's an enormous reward for identifying the top quartile venture capitalist and almost no reward for being in the top quartile of the high- quality bond universe.
你应该投入所有的时间和精力,去追逐最不能有效定价的资产,因为在那里才能通过一流的风投经理人,获得巨额的投资回报,而在债券市场,即使债券优质,经理人一流,回报微乎甚微
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As a matter of fact,if things were perfectly efficiently priced, there wouldn't be any opportunity to generate excess returns and if you make active bets--if you make bets against the market -then whether you win or lose has to do with luck.
事实上,如果资产都是有效定价的,那么根本不可能获得任何超额收益,如果你主动一搏,要从市场中获利,那么无论得失都只能靠运气了
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If an asset class has constituents that are efficiently priced, then it's very hard to generate excess returns.
如果某种资产的构成都是有效定价的,那么就很难产生超额回报
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Firm 1 is pricing at marginal cost, the best response if the other guy is pricing at marginal cost is to price at marginal cost or above.
公司1定价在边际成本,针对对手定价在边际成本的最佳对策,是定价高于或等于边际成本
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Small-cap stocks are tougher to price than large-cap stocks, so there's a 4.7% differential, first to third quartile.
小盘股比大盘股更难定价,第一和第三个四分位数的差距有4.7%
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What they do is they're pricing a portfolio up here and they keep substituting in new ones.
他们的工作是为一个投资组合定价,不停的用新股票进行替代
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The asset pricing model--and this is critical-- assumes everyone is rational and holds the tangency portfolio.
资本资产定价模型是非常重要的模型-,假设每人是理性的，并持有切线资产组合。
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So here my best response is to price at the monopoly price.
所以这里我的最佳对策是定价在垄断价格
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I don't want to make losses, so I just "get out of the market," and the way I "get out of the market," is by pricing above the other guy.
我不想承担亏损,所以我就退出市场,而我退出市场的方法,就是定价比它高
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It's something that permeates the portfolio and, I think, provides really interesting investment opportunities because a lot of the foreign markets are less efficiently priced than those that you find in the U.S.
渗入了整个投资组合,并提供了很有吸引力的盈利机会,因为很多国外市场,没有美国国内市场程度的有效定价
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So if Pepsi is dumb enough to price above monopoly, sure I will undercut Pepsi but I won't undercut Pepsi by a penny, I'll undercut Pepsi all the way down to the monopoly price and make monopoly profits.
如果百事笨到把价格设的高于垄断价格,我当然要定价比百事低,但不是低一点,我要把价格设得比百事低直至垄断价格,并获取垄断收益
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This answer that says I just undercut Pepsi, that's true provided that Pepsi hasn't gone above the monopoly price.
比百事定价低点的答案,只有在百事没有高于,垄断价格时才是正确的
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That will lead us into the capital asset pricing model, which is the cornerstone of a lot of thinking in finance.
然后引出资本资产定价模型，这个模型是很多金融思想的基础。
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.. In the capital asset pricing model, in finance-- this is the most famous model in finance.
金融学里的资本资产定价模型-,是金融学里最有名的模型。
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