The Case-Shiller index can sometimes overstate the magnitude of price increases because it includes foreclosures.
Next Tuesday, the November 10- and 20-City Composite Case Shiller Home Price Indices will be released.
Shiller was among the few who were prescient in predicting the housing crisis in 2007.
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Did Robert Shiller, so bearish on the home market, catch the turn in prices and activity?
The Case-Shiller measure has no upper limit and gives more weight to higher-priced homes.
The difference between the OFHEO and Case-Shiller figures arises largely from the treatment of expensive homes.
So my guess is that Ben Bernanke is terrorized by the Case-Shiller Index.
Notably, Robert Shiller of Yale gave an early warning that America's housing market was dangerously overvalued.
Case-Shiller relies on public records data, hanging back to release the most stable numbers available.
Case-Shiller looks only at homes that have sold at least twice and excludes new construction.
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Shiller used the average real (inflation-adjusted) earnings over the past 10 years in his analysis.
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Housing, too, is still soft in the US. The latest Case-Shiller numbers show prices sinking nationwide.
Shiller and I agree that nothing drastically different occurred in the the economy from March to September.
Most analysts look at the Case Shiller home price index, but it is an enormously trailing statistic.
Meanwhile, the latest numbers from Robert Shiller tell us that the US stock market is 33% overvalued.
The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released on Tuesday, the 29th of November.
Actually, the Case-Shiller home price index rose even more dramatically, with some years showing 15 percent bump-ups.
The Case-Shiller data was complemented by February new home sales numbers, which point to an upward trend.
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The May 10- and 20-City Composite Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are set to be released tomorrow, July 26.
This week it has been the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed home prices fell again in March.
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The latest Case-Shiller data agrees with recent economic releases that showed housing strengthening on a series of indicators.
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Home prices, according to the Case-Shiller indexes, are still about 30% below their pre-crisis levels across the country.
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The indexes are managed by Case Shiller Weiss, a Cambridge, Mass. consultancy cofounded by Yale law professor Robert Shiller.
Overall the ten- and 20-city Case-Shiller indices are merely back to mid-2003 levels.
And the upturn in the Case Shiller Home-Price Index is being pushed along by a fresh construction boom.
Over thirty years ago, Yale professor Robert Shiller noted that stock prices vary far more than company dividends vary.
Shiller recently sat down for a long interview with Steve Forbes, but I chatted with him prior to that.
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"A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind, " says economist Chip Case, the "Case" in Case-Shiller.
The July 10- and 20-City Composite Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are set to be released on Tuesday, Sept. 27.
That will be a surprise to anyone who follows the website of Professor Robert Shiller at Yale ( www.irrationalexuberance.com).
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