That liquidity premium then has to lead to quick flush out of the shadow inventory.
The flush out of the shadow inventory has to lead to more free household spending.
Homebuilders like KB Home and Lennar, though, have managed to outperform markets, despite the shadow inventory.
FORBES: 10 Million Underwater Mortgages And Shadow Inventory Worth $246B Mean Housing Trouble
CoreLogic data shows the number of foreclosed homes and the size of the shadow inventory is massive.
FORBES: Home Prices Growing At Pre-Bubble Rates On Bernanke Boost, But Big Shadow Inventory Lurks
According to CoreLogic, the shadow inventory stood at 1.5 million in April, which translates to 4 months of supply.
FORBES: 10 Million Underwater Mortgages And Shadow Inventory Worth $246B Mean Housing Trouble
As mentioned above, the shadow inventory looms and inventories are still relatively large.
FORBES: Housing Recovery? Starts And Sales Of Existing Units Hit Two-Year Highs
Ever since then, most of the chatter has been about a double-dip in prices, a massive buildup of inventories, and a lurking shadow inventory.
FORBES: Housing Recovery? Starts And Sales Of Existing Units Hit Two-Year Highs
We continue to see conditions in the existing home market as putting downward pressure on inventories and supportive of a gradual cleansing of shadow inventory.
FORBES: Housing Recovery? Starts And Sales Of Existing Units Hit Two-Year Highs
Shadow inventory totals 1.5 million units, according to CoreLogic, representing a four month national supply that could impact the supply side as well as prices.
FORBES: Surprise! Some Cities Are Actually Experiencing Housing Shortages
So, the rapid absorption rate and hence declining inventory of existing homes is telling us that there are relatively few vacancies, inspite of a potentially large shadow inventory.
Couple that with the shadow inventory of homes not presently for sale that will go on the market once conditions improve and the outlook for housing remains troubling.
While the national foreclosure rate has waned this year, certain markets continue to work through a large overhang of shadow inventory, such as the Georgia cities on our list.
Although their reach in the shadow inventory is dwarfed by Fannie and Freddie, FHA backed loans are densely packed in cities, often making up a sizable share of the delinquent loans.
FORBES: FHA Turns, Once More, to Private Investors to Aid Troubled Homeowners
If the shadow inventory was composed of many vacant homes then we would expect them to move rapidly out of the shadows and onto the normal market as the existing inventory fell.
The aforementioned shadow inventory poses another problem. 2.6 million units still need to go through the system to cleanse the market, which in turn has faced tougher regulation in some states.
FORBES: Housing Markets Will Probably Never Return To Pre-Crisis Levels: Case-Shiller Chair Blitzer
The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won't put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders.
That instead of a multi-family boom happening in the spring, we will get a massive collapse in shadow inventory sometime later in the 2012 and a resulting rise in personal consumption expenditures and residential investment.
Despite impressive growth, prices remain stuck at autumn 2003 levels, while the shadow inventory stood at about 3.1 million units last summer, according to Barclays, compared to an average of about 500, 000 before the crisis.
FORBES: Housing Markets Will Probably Never Return To Pre-Crisis Levels: Case-Shiller Chair Blitzer
At the same time, financial institutions including big banks with exposure to the mortgage business like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup are sitting on a shadow inventory of 1.5 million units, or four months supply.
FORBES: What Housing Recovery? Distressed Sales Still High, Shadow Inventory Massive
This only adds to the shadow inventory.
FORBES: Three Essential Reads on The Housing Market Right Now
While the shadow inventory and a clogged up foreclosure pipeline present challenges, if the economy improves to the point where the labor market begins to seriously recover, it should be possible to overcome those obstacles in the medium-term.
FORBES: Home Prices Growing As Fast As Before The Housing Collapse: Case-Shiller
Regulation (such as the robo-signing sparked foreclosure moratorium) has helped to slow distressed sales, while vast number of underwater mortgages and size of the shadow inventory suggests housing markets can face a sudden increase in the number of distressed properties.
FORBES: What Housing Recovery? Distressed Sales Still High, Shadow Inventory Massive
Despite the first monthly increase in home prices in 7 months, as the Case-Shiller indexes showed on Tuesday, there are still more than 10 million properties with underwater mortgages, and a shadow inventory of 1.5 million, or four months supply.
FORBES: 10 Million Underwater Mortgages And Shadow Inventory Worth $246B Mean Housing Trouble
With the shadow inventory down 14.8% in the year to April to 1.5 million (four months supply), residential real estate markets are no longer dragging on growth, but for the first time since 2005 will actually add to output expansion, Bovino explained.
FORBES: Double-Dip Recession 20% To 25% Likely If Fiscal Cliff Hits, S&P Warns
That may not be the worst thing, given the excesses that led the the bubble bursting five and a half years ago, but Alpert thinks one of the knock-on effects is housing demand from institutional investors masking the fact that shadow inventory is still a significant overhang on the market.
FORBES: Fannie Mae Rides The Wave Of U.S. Housing, Books Record Profit
The housing recovery is already having a positive impact on growth, pushing GDP up as residential investment accelerates, but with more than 1.1 million homes in some state of foreclosure and a shadow inventory that tops 2 million units, it will take some time for the market to truly heal, while the risk of slowdown and a reversal remains a possibility.
FORBES: Home Prices Growing At Pre-Bubble Rates On Bernanke Boost, But Big Shadow Inventory Lurks
应用推荐