There seems to be no immediate pass-through from the higher oil price into the domestic confidence indices and output and demand indicators.

FORBES: Nomura Cuts Russia Growth Forecast

Again, however, official output figures, based on indicators such as the number of doctors and hospital beds, fail to take account of higher quality, so growth is understated.

ECONOMIST: A survey of the new economy

The NBER uses key monthly indicators of economic output, including employment, industrial production, real personal income, and wholesale and retail sales - to determine when economic growth has turned negative, rather than relying solely on two quarterly declines in GDP.

BBC: US recession 'began last year'

" In explaining this, they say - in effect - that they looked at what the output gap would be, on the basis of their previous "cyclical indicators' approach, and decided it wasn't plausible.

BBC: The Bank, the OBR and Mr Osborne