Mr Geithner understands better than almost anyone that in crises you throw out the forecast and focus on avoiding low probability events with catastrophic consequences.

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But we can afford reasonable risk management: insuring against the truly catastrophic, low-probability events that hopefully never afflict us.

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And there are the so-called "black swans, " events of low probability and high impact.

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When it comes to high-impact low-probability (HILP) events, impact is so big, in both emotional and actual terms, that it swamps our understanding of the actual risk, which is often very small or unknowable.

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Jackson had the wisdom to look at low-probability but high-consequence events that could rock his business.

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The question of how to prepare for low-probability, high-consequence events is one of the most difficult in government and business.

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From an investor's perspective, the idea of planning for low-probability, high-consequence events is well treated in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

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