Yet whether the findings of this study serve as a baseline, there is in any case a high probability that we already know what the market will look like and how it will behave.
So it seems a pity that a review of the court's workings, due to open in Uganda on May 31st, will in all probability get bogged down in a destructive argument (see article).
Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probability model is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.
He said that the only foreseeable threat to CCA's business is a steep decline in crime rates, a low-probability event.
Rose managed only two rounds of 74, which leaves him requiring a pick in all probability, while Donald - who is in position to qualify as things stand - is struggling to make the cut too at three over with nine to play.
In the 20-year history of the Premier League, there has never been such a volatile probability swing in the final 10 weeks of the season.
In the 20-year history of the English Premier League, there has never been such a volatile probability swing in the final 10 weeks of the season.
Masahiro Kawai, an official at the Asian Development Bank, this week urged the region to prepare for a slump in the dollar, the probability of which he compared to that of a global bird-flu epidemic: it is far from a certainty but would have a tremendous impact if it happened.
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Investing in trends has a much, much higher probability of making good returns than investing in things that are not on major trends.
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When physical demand can not be met in the primary futures markets, even as there are massive naked shorts in the futures markets, I believe the probability that a major derivatives failure in the gold market is afoot or in the process of transpiring.
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He was a fine mathematician (there is a Perutz theorem in probability theory) and the plots of his Prague tales toy with chance and coincidence.
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This sort of structure would provide leverage relative to traditional direct lending by EFSF in that given a relatively low probability of default, the total debt that could be insured would be larger than the total that could be lent directly.
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Banks are behaving on the assumption that a further 20% fall in the price of UK homes is a realistic probability, and are protecting themselves against that eventuality.
There is a high probability of a meaningful stock market reversal in September or earlier.
By random chance, there is a 25% probability that a given fund will be in the top quartile so you might expect that at least 25% of these top performers stayed in the top quartile.
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"Extreme Competition" said top companies, across all industries, faced a 20% to 30% probability of falling out of leadership in a five-year period.
No surprise that readers have this view, since the media are close to unanimous in decreeing that the probability of a Democratic victory is high.
"We've identified the victim through DNA with a probability approaching one in a billion so we're confident we've identified the victim of that crime, a young woman from the Swindon area, " he said.
For example, even though a Nuke would cause ninety billion dollars in destruction the probability of this type of attack is so low that it creates a vector value below the benchmark needed to consider it a daily threat.
Paul Hoffmeister, chief economist at Bretton Woods Research, a boutique investment research firm in New Jersey, gives a shut down a 30% probability of occurring.
Risk models can only guess at the probability of a strike in a particular place.
However, it is a low probability trade also in terms of price maximization of trade.
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"The probability of a collapse in housing or another significant leg down has diminished, " says Joshua Anderson, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co.
Spending more time in school did reduce the probability of a teenage pregnancy, but on a much smaller scale than the effect of a pregnant sister.
And if those debating things like the Climate Change Act cannot even calculate the probability of two heads in a row what are they going to manage with more complex problems?
At this time, we have a series of promising investment opportunities that have a high probability of closing in the near future, and we assure you, our Backers will be the first to know.
The probability of any one of the above-mentioned events (and many more that could be added to a list of potential triggers) may be small in a given year, but the combined probability of at least one or more of these events happening in the next three years is high.
In fact, even Google (GOOG), a company founded in 1998 and going public less than a decade ago, has a lower probability of default than its home nation.
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The point is, your chance of winning the car was one in three to begin with and after Monty reveals a goat, the probability that your box has the car is still just one in three.
At the time that we went in and redid it the second time early this year, the expectation was there was about a 40 percent probability that we might have to go back in and do that again.
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