If either candidate has coat-tails that reach right down to state level, he can influence the party balance in the state legislatures which, after 2000, will be redrawing the lines of congressional districts (hence affecting future elections).
George Bush had an army of evangelicals working for him in 2004. and the question is, even if people will hold their nose and vote for John McCain - if there are conservatives, how many of them will come out and man the phone banks and actually work their tails off for him.