There is even the probability that the state's share of GDP may slip back in the short term, as the recovery lifts the overall economy.
For example, when given a description of a woman who is concerned about discrimination and asked if she is more likely to be a bank teller or a bank teller who is a feminist activist, people tend to assume she is the latter even though probability laws tell us she is much more likely to be the former.
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This is known as a death spiral, now an even-money probability.
And if those debating things like the Climate Change Act cannot even calculate the probability of two heads in a row what are they going to manage with more complex problems?
The probability of an even result with a lopsided coin is small.
Even back then in 1975 the probability that it would go into remission was about 80%.
All the satellite collision probability will go way up if even one is hit.
However, even when dealing with a threat of low probability but devastating impact, one is obligated to err on the side of safety.
Also, anybody with a basic understanding of probability can prove mistakes are unlikely to even themselves out.
If the true-positive rate is significantly less than 100%, as it would be for cheaper tests, then the posterior probability could be only 1% or even less.
Even the Fed seems to be preparing markets for that probability with its recent statements, and speeches by individual Fed governors.
The Shanghai one, in all probability, will not recoup its cost, even if the permanent infrastructure expenses are stripped out of the calculations.
For example, even though a Nuke would cause ninety billion dollars in destruction the probability of this type of attack is so low that it creates a vector value below the benchmark needed to consider it a daily threat.
So even though Oracle could financially make a large move, we think the probability is remote.
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Even as Germany wrestles with the Euro woes, and Eurogeddon, the probability of widespread social unrest in Europe in reaction to austerity, the possible collapse of its currency (or alternatively the possibility of compromise), close neighbours Switzerland are becoming more optimistic about their own economic future.
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But even the elite AAA rating currently held by Uncle Sam does not imply a zero probability of default for all time.
That the iPhone 5 might get one third of the iPhone market, or one third of the smart-phone marketplace, or possibly even one third of all phone sales: all seem possible with lowering levels of probability.
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When physical demand can not be met in the primary futures markets, even as there are massive naked shorts in the futures markets, I believe the probability that a major derivatives failure in the gold market is afoot or in the process of transpiring.
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Even though markets had been pricing in some easing (a 25bp cut with a 65% probability), the decision to cut by 50bp surprised almost everybody.
This means NBS, in all probability, will tell us that growth came in at 9.3%, maybe even 9.4%.
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The maths tells us that in respect of probability, people are much like tosses of a coin: we will see occasional clusters, even of cancer.
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Clinton said that every year of delay in ratifying the treaty increases the probability that nuclear weapons will spread to regions with intense national rivalries and to rogue leaders and perhaps even to terrorists.
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