Allianz has spent a year trying to staunch losses at Dresdner from corporate and investment banking.
But the strategist for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Hong Kong is wary of some markets too.
The Japanese system, complains Mitsuo Ohmi, a drug analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson (Asia) Ltd.
Deutsche and Dresdner have discussed a merger before, but talks were abandoned at a late stage.
Dresdner Kleinwort is being merged with Dresdner's corporate bank, taking over its top 2, 000 customers.
For Dresdner, the main interest is that Allianz may swallow it more or less whole.
Dresdner's investment bank would be an obvious candidate for sale, were there a buyer.
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More difficult will be reshaping Dresdner's strategy to become a force in global finance.
The state has hired Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the US investment bank, to value Yugansk.
As it explores other options, Dresdner is trying to improve its chances of negotiating from strength.
Their price has risen by one-quarter since the merger with Dresdner was called off (see chart).
Yet Dresdner thinks it is worth a premium, because it has bigger industrial holdings than Commerzbank.
Both Commerzbank and HypoVereinsbank have had more success in building direct banks than Deutsche or Dresdner.
It may favour a link between Dresdner and HypoVereinsbank, as it owns a fifth of both.
As expected, Dresdner is shedding 3, 000 more jobs, two-thirds of them in corporate and investing banking.
As Dresdner exhausts its options for friendly, domestic deals, a hostile foreign approach looks increasingly likely.
Dresdner is back in a strategic bind, and unlikely to stay single for long.
"I think clearly the value of these particular funds has deteriorated, " said Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Millan Gudka.
The logic of a Commerzbank and Dresdner deal would be to build up their retail banking business.
Alex Stewart, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, says 2007 has been an annus horribilis for income investing.
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And analysts continue to salivate at the prospect of a tie-up with Dresdner Bank, a Frankfurt rival.
After all, not many weeks ago Allianz was keen to see Deutsche and Dresdner tie the knot.
In particular, it focuses attention on Dresdner Bank, hitherto Germany's second largest, and Commerzbank, which ranked third.
The bonuses had been promised to Dresdner Kleinwort bankers before it was sold to Commerzbank in late 2008.
Allianz is reportedly considering a number of options including the sale of Dresdner Kleinwort once market conditions improve.
The only sign that there had ever been a Dresdner would be the smaller partner's green corporate colour.
Dresdner's investment bank will not be the only one to slim down riskier activities such as proprietary trading.
Dresdner too would rather build trust methodically than take a blind leap, especially after its experience with Deutsche.
"I think the risk to BNP should be limited, " said Dresdner Kleinwort's Gudka.
Commerzbank AG, Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC, and Dresdner Kleinwort Services LLC v.
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