Market watchers expect 400 tons of central bank gold to come on the market next year, but Haugerud expects the total to be more like 350 tons.
Market watchers expect 360 tonnes of central bank gold to come on the market next year, but Haugerud expects the total to be more like 320 tonnes.
While most logically identify global currency debasement as a primary cause, others say that gold is driven by: fear of economic uncertainty, central bank gold hording, international political conflict, or the ebb and flow of the Indian wedding season.
This promise can be verified every minute of the day by observing the current rate of exchange between the dollar and gold, and, under a classical gold standard, by exchanging currency at a national bank for gold coins of a fixed weight and purity.
In overnight news, the World Gold Council reported central bank purchases of gold were more than double the rate seen at this time last year.
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Analysts also cited continued central-bank buying of gold after news that the Bank of Korea bought 25 metric tons over the past two months, its first purchases since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
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Gold market bulls were encouraged Thursday when the World Gold Council reported strong world central bank demand for gold in the third quarter, at a total of 148 tons.
The recent bounce in the prices of bank stocks and gold has, at least for the time being, stopped the bleeding.
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The government, many suspect, wants to sell some of the bank's gold reserves to plug budget gaps before the next general election in 2006.
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Around the world, central bank purchases of gold reached 425 tons last year, the first stockpile expansion since 1988 and the largest since 1964.
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Until several years ago, China's gold market was strictly controlled by the central bank, which bought all the gold mined domestically.
The bank started to trade gold and, by 1980, was one of the biggest in that market.
My best guess as to why gold plunged was that some central bank somewhere made a big forced sale of gold.
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Under the high Victorian Gold Standard, the Bank of England was allowed to issue banknotes over and above the actual gold-backing held in its vaults.
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The authorities have taken a number of steps to restrain the demand for the metal, including the federal government raising the import duty on gold and the RBI forbidding banks and non-bank financial companies from financing the purchase of gold in any form.
Others who are bullish said once the market gets past the year-end holidays, gold will return to trading on its underlying bullish fundamentals of central bank monetary stimulus and that will allow gold to rise.
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Parliament willing, the money is to come from the central bank's pot of gold.
On top of this, nearly every major investment bank has been lowering its gold forecast in recent weeks.
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Gold-rush bank now cashing in on American mortgage lending boom.
If I deposit gold with a bank I retain ownership.
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We note the sharp contrast with 2001, when a shortage of dollar liquidity (strong and strengthening dollar, high real interest rates, low central bank dollar reserves, falling gold and commodity prices, rapidly shrinking U.S. profits) all spelled weakness.
The most important, in the United States and in most other countries, is a positive declaration that gold, and gold-based instruments (such as gold-based bank accounts and so forth) would be permitted for monetary usage, just as we use dollars or, for that matter, foreign currencies such as Canadian dollars or euros.
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On Thursday gold rallied sharply following the news that the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, boosting the euro and thus gold.
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When China lowered the bank reserve ratio, commodities including gold, silver and copper jumped higher.
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Today, with central bank easing in full swing, gold is retreating in advance of what is to come.
While jewelry represents a large percentage of gold purchases in the country, Chinese can also purchase gold at their local bank.
Until last year, its central bank fixed the domestic price of gold.
In fact, that central bank selling near the lows drove gold down to levels it may not otherwise have seen at its low in 2001.
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