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So Patrick, our manager of Pepsi believes that Coca-Cola is going to produce this quantity and he's agreed to produce this quantity.
百事的经理帕特里克认为可口可乐,会按照协议产量来生产,他也会这么做
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and you would like to speak with the manager of the attendant.
你想跟他的经理谈一谈。
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Well, those hedge funds charge enormously more than what a standard manager of marketable securities' charges.
那些对冲基金经理的收费,远比证券投资经理的收费高
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So let's pick on our two managers; let's have two people who have spoken before, so the guy in the red shirt's name is? Steve.
我找两个同学当经理,找两个发过言的人吧,穿红衬衫的男生,叫斯蒂文
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When I talk about I give up the CEO job and functioned as the project manager, Blitzen we actually named that project as "Project Blitzen".
我曾说过要放弃CEO的职位,而成为一个项目经理，那个项目名叫。
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And it's for a lot of business executives
这是为很多商业经理人开办的学校
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Can I speak with your manager?
我可以跟你的经理谈谈吗？
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Then I want to talk about money managers-- professional money managers-- people like David Swensen.
接着,我会讲短期资本经理,像大卫·斯文森一样的,专业的短期资本经理
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Or should I spend my time and energy trying to find the top quartile bond, top quartile real estate manager,or buyout manager, or venture capital manager?
还是说,我应该投入时间和精力,去找一流的债券经理人,一流的不动产或杠杆收购经理人,或者一流的风险投资经理人
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Steve, and I guess in red he should be the Coca-Cola guy, and let's pick on our Jimmy stewart from last week, whose name is Patrick.
斯蒂文是可口可乐的经理,再请出上周的吉米·斯图尔特,叫帕特里克的那位同学来
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Where even if you can find somebody who's going to be a first quartile manager, there's almost no difference between the first quartile return and the third quartile return.
即使你能找到一位,一流的经理人,但在债券市场收益中,第一和第三个四分位数之间几乎没有区别
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As a matter of fact, it costs an increasing amount to play the game when you look at the fees that are paid to investment managers and hedge funds.
事实上,当把付给投资经理,和对冲基金的费用都算进去的话,这个博弈的成本越来越高
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That's when a new manager appears subsequent to the beginning of the ten-year period; they'll put not only the new numbers in, but they'll take the history of the new manager and put that history into the database.
即在10年期开始后,每出现一位新的基金经理,不仅是新的业绩数字会进入数据库,新经理的历史记录,也会填入数据库
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You want to spend your time and energy pursuing the most inefficiently priced asset classes because there's an enormous reward for identifying the top quartile venture capitalist and almost no reward for being in the top quartile of the high- quality bond universe.
你应该投入所有的时间和精力,去追逐最不能有效定价的资产,因为在那里才能通过一流的风投经理人,获得巨额的投资回报,而在债券市场,即使债券优质,经理人一流,回报微乎甚微
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The way you would go about it, if you're a portfolio manager, is you have to come up with estimates of the inputs to these formulas-- that means the expected returns, the standard deviations, and the covariances.
你所要做的，如果你是一个资产经理，你要做的事情就是,对公式里面的一些参数进行估计-,那些参数包括预期收益，标准差，和协方差。
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Depends on--I don't want to be too rigorous about that because you could imagine the other way around, but if you talk to managers this sounds more realistic, at least for retail goods like Coke and Pepsi.
这方面我不想太绝对,因为你们可能会想象其他的情形,但如果你们和那些经理谈过,现在的模型会更贴近现实,至少对于可乐这样的零售产品而言
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This is once you've decided that you're going to be an active manager and try and pursue market beating strategies, how do you decide where it is that you want to spend your time and energy?
一旦你决定了要当主动管理型基金经理人,努力追求高于市场收益的策略,你会如何决定,在哪些方面投入时间和精力
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So, there's been a number of articles that documented that stock prices tend to jump shortly after options are issued to managers.
有一些文章记载表明,在公司发给经理们股票期权之后,股票的价格往往会出现短期激涨
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Now, Mr. Coca-Cola guy knows Patrick pretty well, they've been in the same industry for a while and Mr. Coca-Cola guy, whose name is?
可口可乐的人很了解帕特里克,他们做同行有段时间了,可口可乐的经理叫什么来着
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Now,more than 130 managers failed because, in addition to survivorship bias, there's something called backfill bias.
其实失败的经理人超过130位,因为除了生存偏差之外,还有称为回填偏差的影响
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How are managers going to behave in an asset class where things are efficiently priced?
在面对有效定价的资产时,基金经理会怎么做呢
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I think the best answer to that is a quote from one of my contemporaries, who I think is one of the best investment managers out there.
我可以用我同行的一句话,来回答这个问题,他在我眼中是最优秀的投资经理
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That's what portfolio managers are supposed to be doing all the time.
也是投资组合经理们一直应该在做的事。
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So Steve and Patrick are respectively the managers of Coca-Cola and Poland Spring and Patrick believes that the Coca-Cola manager is going to may be we should just make this Coke and Pepsi since two identical they're near enough and identical, right?
史蒂夫和帕特里克分别是,可口可乐和波兰泉的经理,帕特里克认为可口可乐的经理打算,或许该用可口可乐和百事可乐,他们俩才是对手是吧
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This is incredibly important because,when you look at this number that we started out with,saying the benchmark was 9.9 but net of fees the managers on average only lost thirty basis points--or .3% -you'd say,well that's a game I don't mind playing.
这极其重要,因为当你看这些数字时,刚才说过基准收益是9.9%,但是主动管理型基金经理人的平均净利润,只落后了30个基点或者说0.3%,你可能会说这个游戏,我不介意玩一玩
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The managers of the companies are kind of a group helping each other -let's award options to each other and then after we award them we'll announce the good news and the stock price will go up and you guys will get money.
这些公司的经理在一起,彼此互相帮助,我们互相奖励股票期权给对方吧,在这之后,我们就发布利好消息,然后股价就会上升,这样大家就都能赚到钱了
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This is true whether you look at the universe of the mutual fund managers that we might have available to us as individuals or whether it's institutional data, such as those that I just cited; that concept is survivorship bias.
的确如此,不论你在观察,可接触到的基金经理个人,还是观察一些机构数据,就像我刚引用过的那些,这个现象就是生存偏差
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There's a very important phenomenon that you need to take into account when you look at these histories of returns that are generated by active managers.
当查阅这些主动管理型基金经理,留下的历史收益记录时,有个很重要的现象
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All right, so Patrick when he's in the when he's playing the manager of Pepsi he's going to produce more of this undrinkable liquid and produce this quantity here.
好的,帕特里克是,百事可乐公司的经理,他会生产更多这种难喝的饮料,产量是这么多
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Well, that leakage--that 1.5% or 2% that you pay your hedge fund manager- plus the 20% of profits really reduces the amount of return that's available for the owners of capital.
系统的损耗,大约1.5%或2%的管理费率,用来支付给对冲基金经理,加上20%的利润提成,显著减少了资本所有者,可以得到的回报
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