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I mean, hypothetically a bond trading at $.60 on the dollar with an 8% coupon, five-year bond that's yielding about 18%.
我的意思是，假设一种债券以0。60美元进行交易,同时有8%的票息，五年期债券收益率在18%左右。
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Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析，我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益，特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
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So there's not a lot of room in the government bond market or other high-quality bond markets to generate excess returns.
所以对于政府债券或者优质债券,超额收益的空间不大
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Why would you put any of your assets in bonds if stocks are going to give you 16,000 times your money?
如果股票收益能有16000倍,为什么还要买债券
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The yield-to-maturity on an indexed bond is already in real terms because the coupons are indexed to inflation.
这种债券的到期收益率,就是实际收益率,因为票息已经被通胀指数化了
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They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
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I mean, do you really--you might wonder, aren't people missing something if the excess return is so high of stocks over short-term bonds?
我是指，你们真的。。。你们也会怀疑，这里是不是少了点什么,如果股票收益率高出短期债券收益率那么多？
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I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
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Stocks have paid 4% more a year over this incredibly long time period than short-term bonds.
股票在相当长的一段时间里,每年都比短期债券投资收益率,高出4个百分点。
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We have to ask then, how do we get the price and the yield from this?
怎样确定这种债券的价格和收益呢
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That bond multiple of 72 is just a drag on returns -what's the point?
债券72倍的收益看起来像在拖后腿,为什么还要投资于债券呢
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The thing that is very interesting that he finds is the difference, 4%, between the historical real return on stocks and the historical real return on bonds.
非常有趣的是,他发现历史实际股票收益，和历史实际债券收益之间,存在4%的差异。
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Remember, this thing only runs for sixty days and you could compute your sixty-day return, but people like to compare annual returns-- once again, a tradition we have.
注意,这个债券期限只有60天,当然你可以计算60天的收益率,但是人们往往喜欢用年收益率进行比较,这也是一种传统
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What Siegel emphasized--the book is really about this-- he talks about what is the expected return of stocks and what is the expected return of bonds and so on.
西格尔强调的是。。。这书真正讲的是-,他讨论了什么是股票预期投资收益,以及什么是预期投资债券等等内容。
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Where even if you can find somebody who's going to be a first quartile manager, there's almost no difference between the first quartile return and the third quartile return.
即使你能找到一位,一流的经理人,但在债券市场收益中,第一和第三个四分位数之间几乎没有区别
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We've identified the prices and yields of bonds of various maturities.
我们找出了各种不同期限债券的价格和收益
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So that means what is the stream of payments?
这引出下个问题,债券收益的现金流是怎样的
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If we have an annual return that we're looking at, we can find a completely riskless asset with an annual return-- it would be a government bond that matures in one year.
如果我们可以查看各项资产的年度收益，我们可以找到一个零风险,且达到预期年度收益的资产项目-,也许是一年期的政府债券。
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So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如，在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票，债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
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The other thing that I mentioned last time was that there seems to be a really big difference between the expected return on the stock market and the expected return on short-term debt.
上节课提到的另一条内容是,股票市场的预期收益,与短期债券的预期收益,存在着巨大差异
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he says, all investing is about coupon clipping and the difference between equities and bonds are that bonds come with a coupon that's known and equities have earnings in the future that you don't know.
他说，所有的投资都是关于票息剪券的,股票和债券的区别是,债券有确定的票息,而股票的收益发生在未来,你是无法确定的。
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I computed the returns on the stocks, bonds, and oil for every year from 1983 and I computed the average returns, which I take as the expected returns, I took the standard deviations, and I took the covariance.
我计算了从1983年以来每年的股票,债券和石油的收益，从而得出平均收益率，这些平均收益率作为预期收益率，然后算得标准差及协方差。
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So, ownership of stocks absolutely crushes buying bonds -almost 16,000 times your money or more than 3,000 times your money in the stock market as opposed to 72 times your money or 19 times your money in the bond market or the bill market.
股票的收益率远远超过债券,小盘股的收益差不多16000倍于本金,而大盘收益也翻了300倍以上,相比长期债券的72倍,和短期债券的19倍
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But regardless of how you measure it, for a full half-dozen years, in the midst of this bull market, colleges and universities were over-allocated to fixed income relative to where they had been in June of 1987.
但不管你怎么算,整整六年时间,处于牛市之中,大学的基金,由于1987年6月那次崩盘的影响,过度投资于固定收益债券
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Just as I foreshadowed, if you look at the difference between the first and third quartile in the bond market -these are active returns over a ten-year period again ending June 30,2005 -and the fixed income market, the difference between first and third quartile is a half a percent per annum.
如我之前所示,如果观察,债券市场中的第一和第三个四分位数,四分位数即统计学中,把所有数值由小到大排列并分成四等份三个分割点位置分别就是三个四分位数 考虑十年期的主动型的收益,截止于2005年6月30日,在债券这个固定收益市场,第一和第三个四分位数,每年只差0.5%
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When you look at each of those individual asset classes -domestic equities, foreign equities, bonds, real assets, absolute return and private equity -each of those individual asset classes is going to be relatively well-diversified in terms of exposures to individual positions or individual securities.
当你观察每一种资产,比如国内股权,国外股权,债券,不动产,绝对收益和私募股权,这其中每一种,比起单一头寸或单一证券,风险都是相对分散的
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r1 is the yield on the one-period bond and r2 is the yield on the two-period bond.
1是一年期债券的收益率,r2则是两年期债券的收益率
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