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There's one, it's a book by Dimson, Marsh, & Staunton that--called Triumph of the Optimists-- that Jeremy Siegel quotes.
蒂姆森,马什和斯汤顿联合撰写的书,叫做《投资收益百年史》,杰里米·西格尔从中摘引了部分数据
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Bob Shiller's friend, Jeremy Siegel, wrote a book that has the very simple title, Stocks For The Long Run.
鲍勃·希勒的朋友,杰瑞米·西格尔有一本著作,标题很简单,《股市长线法宝》
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So today and Monday we're going to talk about two very big ideas and these ideas are associated with Sigmund Freud and B. F. Skinner and are psychoanalysis and behaviorism.
所以在今天和星期一,我们将学习两大心理理论,其代表人物分别是,西格蒙特·弗洛伊德和,伯尔赫斯·弗雷德里克·斯金纳,这两个理论便是精神分析理论,和行为主义理论。
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For Jeremy Siegel, in the latest edition of his book, the equity premium is 4% a year since 1802.
杰里米·西格尔在他最新一版的书中讲到,从1802年开始,股权溢价就是每年4%
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This is since 1802-- now how many countries do you think have uninterrupted stock market data since 1802?
西格尔使用的数据始于1802年...,你们想想现在有多少的国家,存有从1802年以来,股票市场的完整数据呢
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We found an equity premium-- or actually Jeremy Siegel's book gave an equity premium of 4% a year.
我们发现了股权溢价的存在,根据杰里米·西格尔所计算得出的结果,股权溢价大约为每年4%
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What I want to do, I want to talk about Jeremy Siegel's book and the equity premium puzzle.
接下来我要做的是，我想谈论下杰里米·西格尔的书,和股权溢价之谜。
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I was going to the Bahamas with my family and with Jeremy Siegel's family-- we'll come back to Jeremy Siegel in a minute.
我们家和杰里米·西格尔一家,一起去巴哈马群岛旅行,过会还会提到杰里米·西格尔
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Jeremy Siegel says that in finance we should be using geometric and not arithmetic averages.
杰里米·西格尔认为在金融上应该用几何平均,而不是算术平均
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The second book that I'm assigning is Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run.
第二本指定教材是,杰里米·西格尔所著,《长期股票投资》
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Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, says the default should be equities.
杰瑞米·西格尔，在《股票的长期走势》一书中，指出默认的投资方式应该是股票。
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The numbers that Jeremy Siegel produces seem implausibly high for the stock market.
杰里米·西格尔所提供的数据似乎表明,股票市场有难以置信的高回报率
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This is--I'm showing here U.S. data, but Siegel also argues in the latest edition that the equity premium is also high for advanced countries over the whole world.
这就是。。。我在这展示的是美国的数据，但是西格尔在他最新出版的书中讨论道,在世界范围内许多发达国家的,股票溢价同样很高。
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What Siegel emphasized--the book is really about this-- he talks about what is the expected return of stocks and what is the expected return of bonds and so on.
西格尔强调的是。。。这书真正讲的是-,他讨论了什么是股票预期投资收益,以及什么是预期投资债券等等内容。
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Jeremy Siegel, in his book, which is assigned for this course, is really emphasizing this capital asset pricing model, emphasizing the kind of efficient portfolio frontier calculations that I've done.
杰里米·西格尔的著作，是本课的指定书目，书中着重讲述了资本资产定价模型，以及有效边界等的计算方法,这部分我已经讲完了。
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In finance, there's often reference to another kind of average, which I want to refer you to and which, in the Jeremy Siegel book, a lot is made of this.
在金融里,我们经常提到,另外一种均值,在杰里米·西格尔的书里多次提及
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The theme of Siegel's book is, can we believe this?
西格尔的书的主旨是，这些是真的吗？
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A funny coincidence is that since our names are close in the alphabet-- you often find our books right together in bookstores because Shiller and Siegel-- if they're shelving alphabetically-- would end up together.
巧合的是,因为我们的姓氏在字母表中排在一起,所以书店里常见到我们的书也摆放在一起,因为希勒和西格尔,如果书店按字母顺序摆放书籍的话,我们的书就会放在一起
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There's an appendix to one of the chapters in Jeremy Siegel's book where he says that one of the most important applications of this theory is to measure how successful an investor is.
刚才讲的是,杰里米·西格尔书上的附录,他认为这个理论最重要的应用,就是衡量一个投资者的收益
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I think--what would Siegel say?
西格尔会说些什么呢
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I'll let you read Siegel and his discussion of this possibility, ... but I think that-- what I want to get now is not necessarily any agreement on whether you believe that there's such a high excess return for stocks.
我会要求你们读西格尔的书,以及他对这种可能性的讨论，但是我认为-,你们并不需要,同意炒股的收益,远远高于其他的投资方式。
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Jeremy Siegel holds the unique distinction-- Business Week did a poll asking MBA's about their favorite professor.
杰里米·西格尔有个独特的荣誉,《商业周刊》曾在MBA学生中做过一项调查,推选他们最喜爱的教授
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Shiller and Siegel are next to each other in the alphabet, so I was standing in line with him for an x-ray and I got to talking with him and I've known him ever since.
希勒和西格尔按字母顺序是相邻的,所以我和他站在一起排队照X光,我们开始聊天,从此我就认识他了
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