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• we have Nala and he meets this man, Rituparna, and this is where a probability theory apparently comes in.

有那勒,他遇到的这个人,叫睿都巴若那,这就到了讲概率论的时候了

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• If you follow through from the independent theory, there's one of the basic relations in probability theory-- it's called the binomial distribution.

如果继续往下看,在概率论里有一个基本的概念,叫做二项分布

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• I wanted to talk about that with a little bit of reference to probability theory and so that's what I will be covering.

讲到这些内容的时候,会涉及一些概率论的知识,这些就是下一讲的内容

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• Anyway, the story ends and Nala goes back and is now armed with probability theory, we assume.

不管怎样,在故事结尾,那勒回去了,我们知道他已经掌握了概率论的知识

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• I think it was the invention of probability theory that really started it and that's why I think theory is very important in finance.

我认为是概率论的诞生,真正促生了保险业,那也是为什么,我认为理论对于金融来说非常重要

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• It's interesting that this person uses the word calculation; this person has the idea--this was-- 1600 was around the year when probability theory was invented.

有意思的是,这个人用了"计算"这个词,这个人想到了这个主意,概率论正是1600年左右产生的

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• Another important concept in probability theory that we will use a lot is expected value, the mean, or average-- those are all roughly interchangeable concepts.

概率论中另外一个常用的重要的概念是,期望值或者也叫均值,这两个概念可以互换

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• The idea of probability theory is that no, you can't change things, there are all these objective laws of probability out there that guide everything.

而概率论的观点是,不,你无法改变事物,世间万物遵循客观的概率,它们即是定律

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• Ian Hacking, who wrote a history of probability theory, searched through world literature for any reference to a probability and could find none anywhere before 1600.

伊恩·哈金为概率论追根溯源,他查遍世界所有关于概率的文献,发现无法追溯到十七世纪以前

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• It really is probability theory and the idea of spreading risk through risk pooling.

就是概率论,以及通过风险汇聚来分摊风险

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• One of the first principles of probability theory is called the multiplication rule.

概率论的最基本的原则,有一条叫乘法原理

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• Hacking believes that there were many gambling theorists who invented probability theory at various times in history but never wrote it down and kept it as a secret.

哈金相信历史上有很多赌博理论家,曾多次构想了概率论,但从来没有记录下来,并且恐为人知

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory.

第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊,那节课的主题是,一门数学理论，即概率论。

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• What Zelizer reported was that some life insurance companies surmounted this problem by changing the pitch, by telling their salespeople, don't try to explain probability theory to these people.

泽利泽发现有些寿险公司,通过改变营销思路克服了这个难题,他们告诉自己的推销员,不要试图给你的客户讲概率论

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• Anyway, that shows that I think probability theory does have a long history, but-- it not being an intellectual discipline-- it didn't really inform a generation of finance theory.

不管怎样,这个故事表明概率论,确实有很悠久的历史,但,那时它并非以学科形式存在,也没有对金融理论的产生有过指导意义

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• The institution of insurance is something that really came in--it's one of the earliest-- I consider it a division of finance-- really came in the 1600s when probability theory was invented.

保险机构的出现,我认为这是金融业中,最早的分支之一,大约在17世纪,概率论刚刚诞生

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• Probability theory is really a movement away from that.

概率论实在与此无关

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• I wanted to say one more thing because I realize that you have to-- your first problem set will cover this-- is to talk about the concept that applies probability theory to Economics.

我还想提一点,因为我意识到...,你们的练习题中会涉及到这个,概率论在经济学中的,应用的问题

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• I'm not going to expand on this because I can't get into-- This is not a course in probability theory but I'm hopeful that you can see the formula and you can apply it.

我不准备拓展这一部分,毕竟这节课不是概率论,但我希望你们能记住这个公式,并且学会应用

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• The real insurance industry, as I mentioned before, began in the 1600s with the invention of probability theory and with the invention of life tables for-- the invention of actuarial science; but, it grew slowly.

正如我刚才所提到的,真正的保险始于17世纪,这得益于概率论,寿命表以及,精算学的产生,但是,它的发展很缓慢

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• So, it was in the 1600s that probability theory started to get written down as a theory and many things then happened in that century that, I think, are precursors both to finance and insurance.

所以直到十七世纪,概率论,才被记录下来,形成理论,并且在那个世纪里诞生了,金融和保险的雏形

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• The probability theory is new.

但概率论是个新知识

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• The mathematical theory of probability was unknown until that time and you can see that insurance suddenly made an appearance at that time.

在那之前,概率的数学理论,是不存在的,而随着概率论的出现,保险业也突然出现了

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

• It's exactly this theory, but he doesn't have the word probability, which hadn't been invented yet.

这就是我们在讲的理论,但他并没有用概率这个词,因为当时还没有发明这个词

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

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