Well here we are again, working up lather as to what we will see from the August U.S. Non Farm payroll data.
If one plots the level of monthly Non Farm Payroll (NFP) in the US from Jan 2003 through to Jan 2013 then the average measure is just 37.47.
Of course eyes will start to turn toward Friday, January 7th and the Non Farm Payroll for December, however, we can be mightily encouraged as US corporations added 297, 000 workers to payrolls according to data released by ADP Employer Services.
The important non-farm payroll figure in the report is seen coming in at up 60, 000.
The important non-farm payroll figure in the jobs report is seen coming in at up 60, 000.
After ADP released its figures, Morgan Stanley increased its non-farm payroll estimate for tomorrow to 110, 000 from 90, 000.
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And, as the latest non-farm payroll data shows, the American economy is already flirting with (if not already in) recession.
While non-farm payroll employment increased, the number of unemployed people and the overall unemployment rate of 8.9 percent barely budged.
The key non-farm payroll number is expected to come in at up 157, 000, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8%.
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Markets have continued to rally, buoyed by the strong ADP reports and expectations of a nice non-farm payroll print on Friday.
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Any number that deviates significantly from the non-farm payroll forecast is likely to produce very active trading in the market place.
Although the sell-off followed some disappointing economic data, equity markets quickly rebounded once decent American non-farm payroll numbers had given investors some reassurance.
November's non-farm payroll numbers came as a disappointment to investors, with the U.S. economy adding only 39, 000 jobs, compared to expectations of around 150, 000.
Today, the nine states that do not tax personal income have shown undeniable gains in population growth, gross state product expansion, and non-farm payroll employment performance.
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Job growth, as measured by non-farm payroll employment, rocketed ahead more than twice as fast in the nine no-income-tax states as compared to the nine top income-tax-rate states.
Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 157, 000 jobs last month.
Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 171, 000 jobs in October.
Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 146, 000 jobs in November.
Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 155, 000 jobs last month.
Then came a large downward correction as those accommodation hopes were quashed by subsequent Fed comments and three straight monthly U.S. non-farm payroll gains in excess of 200, 000 jobs.
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Despite what have been a few months of weaker than expected non-farm payroll additions, twice as many people heard of job gains rather than job losses in early May, which either means expectations are too high or job markets are set to improve, according to the release.
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As markets digest the positive surprise provided by the ADP employment numbers, which showed that 217, 000 private sector jobs were added to the economy ahead of the all-important non-farm payroll report by the Labor Department on Friday, planned layoffs reached an 11-month high on February, with the number increasing for a second consecutive month, giving investors reasons to be concerned.
While consumers cited more favorable prospects regarding the labor markets, November's non-farm job payroll numbers showed that unemployment actually ticked up, reaching 9.8%.
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