The combination of still-high bank charges and shrinking loans suggests the problem lies with the supply of credit not demand for it, says Kevin Daly at Goldman Sachs.

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The newcomer to the field is Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, who calculates that on average the host nation of an Olympics wins 54% more medals than usual.

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Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs thinks there are modest grounds for optimism: the sectors that shrank most this time, such as oil and gas, are notoriously volatile, whereas those that grew, such as services, may be seeing sustainable improvement.

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Kevin Daly at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, has calculated that eliminating the remaining gap between male and female employment rates could boost GDP in America by a total of 9%, in the euro zone by 13% and in Japan by as much as 16%.

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Kevin Daly, one of the Goldman Sachs economists who first questioned the 2009 figures, does believe the 2010 figures will be revised up further, to bring them more into line with the strong company survey data and other indicators that he favours over the ONS version of events.

BBC: The Nobel prize, and the ONS