The Ospreys will overtake the Tigers if they win and deny them a bonus point, or if they claim a bonus-point win and Leicester only get one bonus point in defeat.
Leicester will go through as group winners if they win, draw or claim two bonus points in defeat at Swansea's Liberty Stadium.
Medard finished off the Welsh side by claiming his second try after 54 minutes and then it was merely a question of whether or not Toulouse would claim a bonus point.
Italy were able to hang on for the win but they look a shadow of the side that defeated both Scotland and Wales in this year's Six Nations and their inability to claim a bonus point could prove costly.
Yves Donguy's try helped Toulouse claim a crucial bonus point despite Felipe Contepomi's late Leinster drop-goal.
With no time to go for a winner despite their thrilling fightback, Perpignan had a penalty to move within seven points and claim a second bonus point - only for Porical's long-range effort to fall just short.
However, Leinster will leave France feeling that they missed a superb opportunity to claim a valuable try-scoring bonus point.
They might not have sneaked victory at the death but Toulouse did manage to stay within seven points to claim what could be a vital losing bonus point in a very tight group.
Contepomi converted and also added the extras after he charged down Riki Flutey to claim Leinster's fourth try and a bonus point.
If they think they can recover the cost of your claim (perhaps helping your no-claims bonus) then they will do so, but if not then it's an accident, and that's why you have insurance.
To claim a magical five-star rating from Morningstar or to win a year-end bonus, a manager might ignore the tax implications of frequently trading stocks.
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