结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势，预测效果较好。
Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular, seasonal, cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.
我告诉他们不要担心，这可能只是个随机的变化，而不是显著的趋势。
I tell them not to worry because it is probably just a random variation, not a significant trend.
结论：多变量随机系数模型可有效地进行多变量重复观测数据的动态变化趋势分析以及随机效应分析。
CONCLUSION: multivariate random coefficients model can effectively analyze the dynamic change trend and random effects of multivariate repeated measures data in medical research.
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