分析人员研究时采用一个基准模型（增长率既定），并设想一套不可持续性财政政策。

They use a baseline model that assumes a given growth rate and an unsustainable fiscal policy.

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但是这一设想是建立在过于乐观的预期上的。该预期包括：失业率保持在个位数水平(2009年失业率已达12%)；经济增长率达到5%左右(经济学家们预估今年将为2.5%)。

But this was based on over-optimistic forecasts that unemployment would remain in single digits (it hit 12% in 2009) and the economy would grow by about 5% (economists expect 2.5% growth this year).

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