本文以系统抽象法为基本方法，坚持历史与逻辑的统一，详细占有资料。
This paper employs systematic abstract method, persisting in the unity of history and logic with possession of detailed information.
方法：通过建立恶性肿瘤登记报告制度获取发病资料，用GM（1，1）灰色系统一阶线性模型对恶性肿瘤发病进行预测。
Methods Obtain materials of cancer incidence by establishing cancer registered reports, and predict cancer incidence by GM(1,1) gray model.
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