用秩次相关分析法检验得出灞河出山径流序列均存趋势性，用有序聚类分析法分析得出灞河出山径流序列的突变年份是1948年。
Rank correlation analyses show that all of the runoff sequence change with tendency, and the sudden change appeared in 1948, as concluded by order cluster analysis method.
本文首先构造了单位根过程外生性结构突变的检验，排除了数据生成过程的突变对建模的影响。
Firstly, we construct the test of the exogenous structural mutation for a unit root process and this eliminates the influences on the model from the mutation of the data growth process.
同时，对算法进行加噪检验，结果表明混沌动力结构突变检测方法具有较强的抗噪能力。
Then a noise-adding test is made to prove that the chaotic catastrophe detection has better anti-noise capability.
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