基于贝叶斯理论，提出采用概率的方法来估计泊松曲线的参数。

Based on the Bayesian theory, a probability method was proposed to estimate the parameters of the Poisson curve.

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结合具体工程实例，证实泊松曲线很好地反映了路基沉降过程中沉降量与时间的“S”形关系。

Then the model has been used to forecast some project, the result prove Poission curve exactly reflect the "S" relation between settlement and time.

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泊松曲线是一种精度较高的沉降预测方法，但是它只能在等时空距数据条件下才能使用，在工程实际中观测的数据很难满足这一要求。

Poisson curve is a accurate method of settlement prediction, but it is used in condition of equal interval data, which is hard to carry out in actual engineering.

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