即使这个数字有一定偏差,但巨大的利润仍然留有相当大的空间。
Even if the Numbers are slightly off, that leaves a lot of room for big profits.
“所报道的这些数字总是很惊人,”舍基表示,除了正态分布的钟形曲线没有偏差,差异无处不在,帕累托分布的现象到处都有。
"These figures are always reported as shocking," notes Shirky, as if anything but a nice bell curve were an aberration, but Pareto distributions pop up all over.
他还说,邮寄的表格和普查员经常弄错配偶的性别,这使得数字有偏差。
He says reporting on the mailed form and through follow-up enumerators often mislabeled the gender of spouses, which skewed the Numbers.
So,we're talking about a group of funds that in aggregate probably produced somewhere in the low teens returns and he's got 11.7% per year combined survivorship bias and backfill bias.
因此我们说这组基金总体上,大概产生了略高于10%的收益率,他算出的数字是每年11.7%,结合了生存偏差和回填偏差
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