心理学研究中有一个门类专门研究这个问题，方法是测定人们在做出概率判断时的准确性。
There is a line of psychological research that studies precisely this, by measuring how accurate we are at making probability judgments.
虽然长期以来基础概率效应主要出现在心理学研究当中，但它远非仅供学者娱乐消遣的简单逻辑游戏。
Long trapped in the psychological research literature, the base-rate effect is more than just a subtle logical trap to delight academics and smart-alecks.
在分析多个理论模型的基础上，采用贝叶斯定理证明了前提概率原则，并将此原则与人类心理过程相结合，将归纳推理分解为连续进行的三步过程。
After analyzing several theory models of inductive reasoning, we use the Bayes Theorem to prove the premise probability principle, and integrate this theory with human mental process.
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