我们首先想出一个理论，一套假设。

First we think up a theory, a set of hypotheses.

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只有当投资者假设日元将保持疲软，套息交易才有意义。

Carry trades make sense only if the investor assumes that the yen will remain weak.

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尤其难以解释的事实是：克林顿的顾问们在根据一层套一层的“如果怎样就会怎样”的假设来考虑各种可能的情况，而绝大多数假设都远非他们所能控制的。

What makes it especially hard to explain is the fact that Clinton's advisers are building scenarios based on layers upon layers of what-ifs, most of which are not anywhere near their control.

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