但是这一模型假设极端价格波动的概率是可忽略的，而在现实当中，股票价格的剧烈波动远比假设的情形要频繁。

But it assumes that the probability of extreme price changes is negligible, when in reality, stock prices are much jerkier than this.

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知情人士表示，嘉能可和贡沃尔也认为，在2010年初，价格上涨概率不大。两家公司均拒绝置评。

Glencore and Gunvor also see little upside for prices in early 2010, said people familiar with their trading views. Both declined to comment.

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一项来自美国新的研究表明，从饮食和补充剂中增加钙的摄入量可降低妇女患大肠癌高达23%的概率。

Increased intakes of calcium from the diet and supplements may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer by up to 23 per cent in women, says a new study from the US.

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