如果这些起伏只是噪音,从统计角度它们应该随时间呈高斯分布,但事实是分布呈”反指数”(inverse power-law) 分布,也就是 P(t)=A/t^a。如果你再统计同时期太阳活动的”起伏”,会发现也是呈类似的分布。
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市场肯定是这样解读的,周一上证综合指数一反地区内其他市场的上涨趋势,下跌了1.4%。
The markets certainly interpreted it that way, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.4% Monday, bucking a rising trend for other markets in the region.
第三,帮助设计过这项指数的经济学家Ramin Toloui说,这项基准包含着温和反周期的元素。
Third, Ramin Toloui, the economist who helped devise the index, says the benchmark has a mild countercyclical element.
虽然将来几个月消费者价格指数可能会保持在高于5%的水平,我们同意这个反通货膨胀(disinflation)的中期展望。
We concur with this medium-term outlook of disinflation, although CPI inflation in the coming months could remain above 5%.
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