出生队列分析则显示1963年以后出生队列发病率的下降趋势。
Birth cohort analysis showed notable reducing changes for those born after the year 1963.
目的为了较为系统地介绍贝叶斯图解模型，并用于肝癌发病资料分析和发病率预测。方法利用贝叶斯图解模型和年龄队列模型对肝癌发病的年龄、出生队列效应的参数进行估计。
Objective This article introduces Bayesian graphical modelling and analyze incidence data of primary live cancer in Qidong county, and predict incidence rate of Primary live cancer next period.
结果：分析表明栖霞县宫颈癌死亡率下降与时期和出生队列因素有关。
The data of mortality of cervical cancer in Qixia County as an example to analysis. Result: the decline trend of cervical cancer mortality related to the period and cohort factors.
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