一次指数平滑模型充分体现了负荷连续变化的趋势性和周期性，但是没有详细考虑天气因素对负荷的影响。
Single exponent smoothness model fully embodies the characters of trend and cycle of the continuous varying power load, but it can not think about the effect of the weather elements carefully.
提出了当零售商采用一次平滑指数法或简单移动平均法获得需求信息的过程中，不存在波动放大现象。
It shows that the demand variability does not increase when the retailer relies on the simply exponentially weighted moving average or the simple moving average to forecast demand.
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