abstract:Trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as a time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data, by relating the measurements to the times at which they occurred.
The leading indicators the OECD uses for the UK include new car registrations, the Confederation of British Industry's business climate survey, a measure of the stocks of finished goods and a measure of consumer confidence, all weighted, added together and compared to an estimation of the trend.