They are not assurance of the process and result of subjective forecast, but assurance of the reasonability of history information and objective evidence and hypothesis used.

它们并非对主观预计的活动过程和结果进行鉴证，而是对作为预测基础的历史信息和客观迹象，以及所用假设的合理性所作的鉴证。

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The risk of flood operation mainly comes from the errors of flood and rainfall forecast, in the next place, the errors comes from the decision-maker's subjective preference.

水库汛限水位动态控制中的风险主要来自洪水预报和降雨预报的误差，其次来自决策者的决策误差。

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