Thefundamentalmodelofduopolycompetition in verticaldifferentiated markethastwoveryimportantassumptions: consumers'informationis completeandtheir preferences are stable.
Polling since the debate generally shows small or no shifts in the vote preference of all registered voters, but big shifts in enthusiasm, and better margins after a likely voter screen. (Pew is the exception, and apparent outlier.) Vote preferences have remained remarkably stable despite overwhelming and near-universal negative post-debate coverage of the President.