Everyone around the table - and everyone in political Washington - knows the kind of deal that would avert the fiscal cliff: some tax rises, some tax reform, some spending cuts, and some reform to the giant social programmes to trim future spending.

BBC: Fiscal cliff: Simpson and Bowles gloomy on deal chances

Although governments have increased spending on social programmes, they have done little to improve their effectiveness.

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There will be fewer public works, but more spending on social programmes and security.

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