The small probability event has a wide range of applications in daily life.

小概率事件在日常生活中有着很广泛的应用。

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A small shift in the predicted probability of an extreme tail event can wreak havoc.

对一个极端的末尾事件的概率预测上的较小改变，能够导致一场大破坏。

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Markets might be undermined by what Nassim Taleb, an author, has described as a “black swan”—an event with a small probability of happening, but a big impact if it does.

市场有可能被作家塔雷伯所描述的“黑天鹅”（发生几率很小，但可造成重大影响的事件）所击垮。

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However, this assessment appears at odds with what seismologists have known for at least 20 years that small earthquakes increase the likelihood that a powerful event will happen in the near future, even if the absolute probability of such an event remains low.

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