He could attract the followers of his fallen allies: Hutus from Rwanda, the late Mobutu Sese Seko's presidential guard from Congo, exiled supporters of Congo-Brazzaville's ex-President Pascal Lissouba.
But Rwandan-backed rebels did take Kinshasa once before, in 1997, sweeping away the old dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko, and installing Mr Kabila's elephantine father, Laurent.