My 7.0 percent total returnprediction for U.S. stocks assumes 2.0 percent inflation, 2.5 percent real GDP growth and a 2.7 percent all-on dividend factor, less 0.2 percent in index fund fees.
That is a relatively optimistic prediction, for it would merely return the bankruptcy rate close to its long-term average after an abnormally trouble-free period, and it assumes only a mild recession in America.
My prediction would be that we will see a return to a more fragmented world in which many diverse non-systemic institutions can operate more comfortably and take on the degree of risk they feel happy with.