So, you have to pay a lot of attention to overbought and oversold oscillators, and these could be very long-term ones that run from one to three to five months, so that you are buying at the bottom of a relative strength cycle instead of buying at the top.
Therefore, sellers of the portfolio protection that typically hedge will sell more SPX futures in the first week of a five-week expiration cyclerelative to the first week of a four-week expiration cycle.
So, we have an economy that's expanding, we have earnings that are expanding, we have things that are perfectly obvious like, in the nonbank world, the strongest balance sheets relative to an economic cycle that we've ever seen.