There is a line of psychological research that studies precisely this, by measuring how accurate we are at making probability judgments.

心理学研究中有一个门类专门研究这个问题，方法是测定人们在做出概率判断时的准确性。

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Study on effect of feedback on probability estimate can well reveal how the feedback interfere with each link of heuristic, thus precisely grasp the psychological mechanism of heuristic bias.

研究反馈对启发式概率估计的作用，是通过揭示反馈如何影响启发式的各个环节，从而准确把握启发式产生偏向的心理机制。

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Heuristic probability estimate is one of the popular issue of natural reasoning in foreign psychological research currently.

启发式概率估计是当前国外自然推理研究的新兴的热点问题之一。

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People might give that a low probability because it had never been over 10,000, so they just had no psychological anchoring on that number.

人们也许会认为几率不大,因为道指从未突破万点,所以人们心理对这个数字没有锚定效应

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