摘要:概率性保险(Probability insurance)人们普遍购买保险以防止损失,这是预期效用函数呈凹形的证据。但另一方面,为什么人们愿意以远高于预期成本的价格来购买保单呢?
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We're also going to recognize, however, that insurance got a slow start because — I believe it is because — people could not understand the concept of probability.
我们同时打算识别,然而,保险业那时只是缓慢的开始,我相信那时人们还没有理解概率的概念。
So, it was in the 1600s that probability theory started to get written down as a theory and many things then happened in that century that, I think, are precursors both to finance and insurance.
所以直到十七世纪,概率论,才被记录下来,形成理论,并且在那个世纪里诞生了,金融和保险的雏形
The institution of insurance is something that really came in — it's one of the earliest — I consider it a division of finance — really came in the 1600s when probability theory was invented.
保险机构的出现,我认为这是金融业中,最早的分支之一,大约在17世纪,概率论刚刚诞生。
The mathematical theory of probability was unknown until that time and you can see that insurance suddenly made an appearance at that time.
在那之前,概率的数学理论,是不存在的,而随着概率论的出现,保险业也突然出现了
The real insurance industry, as I mentioned before, began in the 1600s with the invention of probability theory and with the invention of life tables for-- the invention of actuarial science; but, it grew slowly.
正如我刚才所提到的,真正的保险始于17世纪,这得益于概率论,寿命表以及,精算学的产生,但是,它的发展很缓慢
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