abstract:Probabilistic forecasting summarises what is known, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to a single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different outcomes, and the complete set of probabilities represents a probability forecast.
During the recentdecade, a newtendencyoflong-termearthquakeforecastingorseismicpotentialstudyhas been shifting graduallyfromdeterministicanalysis to probabilistic analysis.
He points out that, with the exception of an informal system in California, no country in the world has yet set up regular probabilistic earthquake forecasting that can be used to guide emergency actions.
Here's how the probabilistic forecast test would work for temperature, for instance: forecasters would be given 100 notional forecasting "tokens" for every forecast.