...近在其新作Heads Up中提到一个相当不错的观念,认为我们无法真正预防未知的危险,只能尽力做好“预测现在(predict the present)”。作者认为出其不意的事件(surprise events),是因为未能及时察觉早期的警讯,进而做出回应。
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The result was showed that the model could not only fit function, but also predict the present frequency according to the past data when some error data exited.
结果表明该模型不仅能拟合函数,而且可在存在野值时,根据以往的数据预测目前的频率。
We can run a fully coupled model for the past and present and see what our model will predict for the future in terms of the sea ice and the Arctic climate.
我们能够运行一套双数模型,对北极气候的过去和现在经行对比,以此对未来北冰面和气候做出更为精确的预测和判断。
The computer models predict that if emissions continue to rise at the present rate, average temperatures will most likely increase by 4c by 2100.
电脑模型的预测显示,如果排放量以当前速率增加,到2100年平均气温极有可能升高4度。
So, we are now going to do one standard problem where we will convince ourselves we can apply this formulas and predict the future given the present.
我们接下来将去研究一个标准问题,通过这个问题,我们能让自己相信,我们能利用这些式子,根据现状,预测未来
The plan, every time, is to predict the future given the present.
无论何时,我们的做法都是根据现状来预测未来
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