And if Lincoln is destined to fall, it seems more likely that an upset would come at the hands of either Silver Linings Playbook (which I previously explained might be positioned for a surprise win) or Life of Pi, the only two films that have enough nominations in traditionally predictive categories to win Best Picture.
Bill Block, who purchased indie films The Blair Witch Project and Pi for Artisan, and now runs QED, a film financing and distribution company, says the strategy makes sense.